In June, I wrote a diary saying I would support Warren or Harris over Biden. Why? I wasn’t a fan of yesterday’s politics and the associated legislative baggage. I have always sided more with Warren than Biden in their long term feud. That’s still very true. However, in that June diary, I also stated:
“But our number one focus has to be beating Donald Trump. If Biden has a lot better chance than anyone else, then he’s the one.”
Joe Biden consistently polls better against Trump than anyone else. Here’s the electoral map based on the RCP polling average. Joe Biden wins Florida and is competitive in Texas. That’s not true for anyone else. A lot of people say this is name recognition. That argument holds up less well with time.
The differences between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders are modest compared to the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Also a lot of Warren’s and Sanders ideas wouldn’t pass a 50-51 seat Democratic Senate. A President Warren or President Sanders would be more a symbol that a candidate willing to take on the rich and powerful can win. It would also move the overton window. That’s worth something. But is that worth the increased risk of losing to Trump?
When I look at the issues, Joe Biden does get the job done. On health care, Biden supports beefing up the ACA and a robust public health insurance option available to everyone. Biden also supports a $15 minimum wage. He also supports the goals and priorities of the Green New Deal. He’s also got criminal justice reform package that would help reverse some of his legislative baggage. Joe Biden isn’t going to get us into a war with Iran or alienate our allies.
And a lot Biden’s plans could actually pass if Democrats keep the House and can take the Senate.
Warren’s support also leans white, college educated, more upscale. She struggles with non-college white Democrats and black Democrats. Contrast that with Biden who does well with both non-college white Democrats and people of color. The latter coalition is more representative of the population. I think Biden has a better chance to win back the Midwest and Rust Belt states as well as expand the map to include Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas.
That said, I do agree with a recent excellent diary it's time for new leaders and I know Biden isn’t that. I think the current leadership class has failed across major institutions because they often served themselves not people. That’s especially true in the corporate world and in the Republican Party. Yes, we need new leaders who understand that leadership means putting people- especially those at or near the bottom first.
The diary has examples of that leadership failure. For example, Exxon did know fossil fuels would cause irreversible climate change back in 1982. You can watch Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez interview a former Exxon scientist here.
How would our world be different today if in 1982 Exxon executives had acted like leaders? What if in 1982 Exxon executives had decided to tell the public the truth? What if they transitioned Exxon to a clean energy company instead of spending millions of dollars to promote climate change denialism?
And there are examples like this on issue after issue from leaders marketing the idea tax cuts at the top trickle down to health insurance companies spending millions to convince Americans public health care means fewer choices.
One thing I like about Warren and Sanders is they take on that kind of crap. Joe Biden’s history is more trying to work within the system and accepting it for what it is. True, sometimes you have to in order to pass legislation. But there’s so much stuff like this! President Obama worked within the system when he passed the ACA. If he hadn’t, would he have been able to pass a health care bill?
Right now, the polls tell me it’s a too early for a candidate like Warren or Sanders. That might change next recession (which I don’t want). But for now it doesn’t seem time. I don’t know if it’s policy or something else about Warren or Sanders. Would the right change candidate appeal more?
The future seems scary to me. The world seems to be entering a dark populist nationalist era. It’s not just Donald Trump in the U.S. We’ve got Putin in Russia, Modi in India, Xi in China, Bolsonaro in Brazil, and Johnson in Britain. If people are this angry now, how angry will they be next recession?? If the West can’t politically handle the current number of refugees, what happens when we have millions and millions of climate refugees? The combination of declining living standards with the growing impact of climate change is a recipie for political chaos and large scale suffering.
Yes, we can avoid that future. But doing so requires change. I don’t see any chance of that as long as the Republican Party controls any branch of government. What happens if we elect a Democratic president, but Republicans control the Senate? The GOP will do what they did to Obama — obstruct, obstruct, obstruct, and try to destroy Democrats at any cost to Americans. The Republican Party is the poster boy for failed, self-serving leadership!
Long term, the climate debate will also move from whether climate change is real or not to how do we solve it and who pays for it? Do we redistribute wealth to pay for a Green New Deal and go for an economic win-climate win?
I said that leaders put people first, especially those near the bottom. I heard on the radio the other day every night there are 7,000 homeless people in this city. I suspect many of them have disabilities and are older. Why do we allow this to happen to anyone in our country? We don’t have poverty due to a lack of money. I’d like to see that issue raised more.
What are your thoughts on the primary and the politics of today?