Sadly, I’m undecided. I realize that’s not true for everyone. There are people here who are enthusiastically supporting one of the candidates. I think that’s great.
I find myself wondering “Does someone like Barack Obama come along once in a generation?” Is someone as talented as Obama the exception? Obama appealed enough to swing voters to carry the Midwest and Rust Belt, but he also energized and unified Democrats. He was an outstanding campaigner & had a great grasp for policy. He had great political instincts. He is the best campaigner and the best president in my lifetime.
In my opinion, each of our current candidates has some of those traits. Biden can appeal to swing voters and may be best able to win back the Midwest and Rust Belt, but he doesn’t energize our base. Will opposition to Trump and the R’s do that? It didn’t in 2016. He also currently polls better against Trump than either Warren or Sanders. It’s harder and harder to say that’s due to name recognition.
Warren energizes progressives. Like Obama, she is a policy wonk. But she does not appeal to swing voters. I also think she is a better campaigner than Biden.
The choice between Warren and Biden feels similar to the 2016 primary. Yes, there are ideological differences between them. But there’s not much practical difference. Both a President Biden and a President Warren would have to pass legislation through Congress. The best we can hope for is to keep the House and have a small 50-52 Dem Senate majority. That’s enough to pass Biden’s legislation. I don’t think that’s a big enough Senate majority to pass Warren’s health care plan or wealth tax.
So, like 2016, does it boil down to who is most likely to win & best able to govern?
A Warren presidency would therefore be more symbolic and movement building. It would show a candidate who is really willing to take on the rich & corporations can win. Yes, a President Warren could move the overton window by getting her ideas into the national conversation. If nobody ever talks about a wealth tax, it’s harder to build support. I’m weighing that against whether I feel she’s as likely to beat Trump as Biden would be.
I do believe Warren made a mistake to tie herself to Sanders on health care. She was originally open to multiple paths — link — but has now boxed herself into a Sanders version of Medicare For All. The polling data shows support for Medicare For All drops significantly when people learn they will lose employer provided insurance. For that reason, a public option may be a safer political bet. I’m more concerned that we get to universal affordable health care than how we get there.
Warren’s health care plan has no chance to pass a 50-52 Dem Senate. Biden’s plan could pass. I don’t see any reason to take the electoral risk on health care when her plan isn’t going to pass. That’s even more true considering that Biden’s plan would get us to universal health care.
However, I also want the Democrats to move past the days where legislation such as welfare reform, the 1990’s crime bill, the 2005 bankruptcy bill, and more were all acceptable and even deemed necessary to win elections. So, yes, it’s time for some new leaders.
To me, this primary is more like 2004. In 2004, I was undecided between Kerry, Clark, and Gephardt the entire time. I wonder if I’ll ever decide?? In 2008, I was solidly behind Obama. In 2016, I started out for Bernie but changed to Hillary Clinton and didn’t look back. I wrote about that in in this diary.
In closing, I know there are people understandably sad Kamala Harris dropped out of the race. I want to give a shout out to the Daily Kos Kamala Harris group. They worked very hard publishing the 7:00 AM daily Kamala Harris series diaries — link here.