The Atlanta has a piece called “Why Clinton’s vote lead will grow…. and grow...” and there’s an interesting number in there — she’s going to get closer to Obama’s 2012 numbers as the final votes are counted in CA and the other heavily Dem states.
“We probably have about 7 million votes left to count,” said David Wasserman, an editor at Cook Political Report who is tracking turnout. “A majority of them are on the coasts, in New York, California, and Washington. She should be able to win those votes, probably 2-1.” By mid-December, when the Electoral College officially casts its ballots, Wasserman estimates that Clinton could be ahead by 2 percentage points in the popular vote.
If the US has a structural unemployment problem, then it’s also clear that the Democratic party has a structural voter problem. With our votes concentrated so heavily on both coasts, it will be impossible to win nationally without candidates of Obama’s caliber. The Atlantic did a deep dive on this — where the population is thickest, Democrats will win.
The Trump voters in the Midwest and West feel like they have been left behind because they have literally been left behind.
Follow me below the fleur de kos for more poking at this idea.
The best and brightest go to college. From college, they go to where the jobs are- the cities. Some return home to live with mom and dad while they try to find a job. (Approximately 26% do, according to Pew Research.) But for the most part, most Americans are moving into the cities from the suburbs and the exurbs these days, reversing a decades long trend.
In all but five of the fastest-growing metro areas, the largest contributor to growth was net migration and not higher birth rates, according to the Census Bureau. Among the cities with the highest “natural increase” are Washington, D.C., and Provo-Orem, Utah, which was recently voted the city with the highest rate of well-being in the nation.
A county by county breakdown of election results shows the result of this problem. 90% of rural counties went to Trump. The Economist goes into details.
In many rural areas, only one of of five people have a bachelor’s degree.
The black population has fled cities like Detroit — and also like Chicago. They are fleeing to friendlier climes, like Atlanta, because wealthy blacks are the norm in big southern cities, not the exception. This trend has turned the Atlanta metro area blue in this election, even flipping traditional Chamber of Commerce Republicans strongholds like Gwinnett County. When we discussed the long term demographic trends being in Democrats favor in Georgia, it’s not just the booming Korean American and Latinx population — it’s also the slow drain of the black population from the north to the south, leaving traditional Democratic strongholds more vulnerable. The decimated black population in Detroit will no longer offset the white population in rural Michigan.
So….. what do we do?
Unfortunately, rural America is distrustful of the Democrats, apparently viewing those on the coast as “liberal elites.” My husband and I are not on the coast, but we definitely fit the bill for liberals and might be considered elites.
And we fit the trend discussed here. We both grew up outside of big cities — the husband 30 minutes from Greenville SC, and myself 30 minutes from Augusta, GA, both in tiny little rural satellite towns. We both left for our college educations. Neither of us moved back home after finishing our terminal degrees.
And we chose to live in a city.