Retiring Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski
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On Monday, five-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election in 2016, setting off a wild race to succeed her. Maryland is a dark blue state especially in presidential years, going to Obama by a 62-36 margin, and most of the action is likely to be in the Democratic primary. However, while Old Line State Republicans know this will be a very tough contest, they're emboldened by Larry Hogan's surprise 2014 gubernatorial win and they'll be seeing if they can put this in play.
Democrats have a deep bench in the state, and there are plenty of candidates who could jump in. Former Gov. Martin O'Malley quickly ruled out a run, but six of Maryland's seven House Democrats are potential Senate candidates (it's very unlikely that the seventh, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, will be going anywhere). And 2nd District Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger's office confirmed that he's looking at a run here. Ruppersberger used to serve as Baltimore County executive, and he should be able to count on good name recognition in the area. However, Ruppersberger spent months flirting with a 2014 gubernatorial bid before choosing to stay put, and he may not be willing to risk his seniority in the House.
Additionally, 6th District Rep. John Delaney has also acknowledged his interest. Delaney is very wealthy and he can self-fund a bid if he wants. Delaney also upset the establishment favorite in the 2012 primary for this seat, so he has more recent campaign experience than most of his opponents. However, Delaney nearly lost his seat in the 2014 general in a shocker, so his campaign skills may need some work. Delaney also has cast a few conservative votes, such as voting to weaken Wall Street reform. The congressman also represents the second-reddest district in the state, so there may not be enough local Democratic primary voters for him to rely on.
Maryland's other four Democratic House members have yet to say anything publicly one way or the other, but it's likely that they're all looking at the seat. John Sarbanes is the son of Paul Sarbanes, who served in the Senate until his 2006 retirement. Donna Edwards could benefit if she's the only African American in the race. Edwards has been a favorite of progressive groups since she unseated Al Wynn in the 2008 primary, but she'll need to prove that she can raise real money for a Senate race.
Rep. Elijah Cummings holds a very blue Baltimore City seat, and like Edwards has a base with black voters. Cummings has served in the House for two decades and would also need to sacrifice his seniority. Finally, Chris Van Hollen already has a war chest, and has experience raising money from his time as DCCC chair. Van Hollen is already very senior in the House, and he'd arguably be risking the most. However, his aides say he's likely to jump in.
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Another Democrat who was also reportedly interested is former Lt. Gov. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown. Brown was once a rising star in state politics, but things began to unravel after he presided over the state's bumpy Obamacare rollout. Brown was also criticized for running a weak gubernatorial campaign, contributing to his surprise defeat.
Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is an interesting possibility, and she is also reportedly considering. Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker, III could also run.
We might also see the return of former Del. Heather Mizeur (who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary, but impressed a lot of people) and former Attorney General Doug Gansler (who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary, but did not impress a lot of people). U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas Perez is a former Montgomery County elected official and would be an interesting choice, though the Obama Administration wouldn't relish a confirmation fight to replace him. State Controller Peter Franchot has also been mentioned, but sources close to him tell Roll Call that he's unlikely to run. It's very possible that in the next few days, we'll see even more names come onto the radar, even as others decline.
The GOP bench isn't great here, but some Republicans are potential candidates. The most interesting option is former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but he didn't sound incredibly interested. Ehrlich lost to O'Malley twice and seems intent to run for president rather than try again here. Former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino does sound likely to run though. Bongino came close to unseating Delaney in 2014 and his status as a minor conservative celebrity will help him raise money. But Bongino's last Senate bid went badly, with him losing to Ben Cardin 56-26 in 2012.
Rep. Andy Harris is the only Republican in the state's congressional delegation, but GOP sources tell Roll Call that he's unlikely to actually run, even if he does publicly flirt with a bid. Some other potential Republican candidates include former Maryland First Lady Kendel Ehrlich (the wife of Bob Ehrlich), Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman, Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford, Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh, and Del. Kathy Szeliga. But while physician Ben Carson hails from Maryland, he quickly announced that he'd focus on the presidential race instead.
There are a lot of twists and turns left in this race, and we have a long while till the Democratic primary, much less the general election. We'll be following all the action over at Daily Kos Elections.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.