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Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie holds up the pen after signing Senate Bill 1, allowing same sex marriage to be legal in the state, in Honolulu, Hawaii November 13, 2013. Abercrombie signed the law on Wednesday to extend marriage rights to same-sex couples in a state long popular as a wedding and honeymoon destination and regarded as a pioneer in advancing the cause of gay matrimony. REUTERS/Hugh Gentry (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS) - RTX15C7V

Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D)

We've finally gotten confirmation of those Merriman polls showing Gov. Neil Abercrombie losing to state Sen. David Ige by double digits in Saturday's Democratic primary in Hawaii, and it sure ain't pretty for the incumbent. Ward Research, on behalf of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, finds Ige mashing Abercrombie 54-36, an even more dramatic margin than the already considerable 51-41 drubbing Merriman saw Ige dishing out late last week.

As expected, Ige is doing particularly well with Republicans and independents, who can vote in Hawaii's open primary, but he's even beating Abercrombie 51-40 with Democrats, who make up the bulk of the electorate. Ward also tried to gain some insight into the mysterious question of why Abercrombie is faring so poorly, but it doesn't seem they've succeeded. When presented with a broad range of options to describe why they're voting for Ige, fully 46 percent of respondents said they "just do not like the other candidate"; the next-closest reason (Ige's "personality or style") was cited by only 14 percent. It's pretty damn hard to run a winning campaign when people "just don't like you," no further explanation offered.

And if the primary weren't crazy enough, the general election also has the possibility to go seriously sideways, albeit for entirely different reasons. Ward finds Republican Duke Aiona, who badly lost to Abercrombie four years ago, leading Ige 41-34 and Abercrombie 45-30. Either of these would be truly stunning outcomes, but they're only possible because former Democrat Mufi Hannemann, who lost in the 2010 primary, is running as an independent and takes 14-15 percent in both three-way matchups. Aiona also does unusually well with Democrats (a possible red flag), taking 25 percent against Ige and 31 percent against Abercrombie—both huge figures.

But with the Democratic nomination so unsettled, that probably makes it hard to get an accurate read on November. And the primary, fortunately, has not turned ugly, so hopefully the party will rally around the eventual winner. Indeed, Democrats may be better off if Ige prevails, simply because Abercrombie is so unpopular: His favorability rating is an awful 38-58, while Ige's is a stellar 57-15. Aiona's well-liked, too, though, at 63-24, but at least Mufi is under water at 39-49.

All in all, a nutty year in Hawaii politics is likely only to get nuttier. And given the oft-mentioned difficulties in polling the Aloha State, who even knows what the future holds. We always say that a hallmark of loserspeak is declaring that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." But as Stephen Wolf wryly observes, if there's one state where that's actually true, it's Hawaii—so hang on to your butts, because we've got a long way to go yet.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 04:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Wonder what Abercrombie did (9+ / 0-)

    to make people "just not like him."  I mean, it's easy to see why voters don't like, say, Sam Brownback (because he's terrible), but Abercrombie?

    30, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 04:58:49 AM PDT

  •  But why is Abercrombie so unpopular? (8+ / 0-)

    Given that Schatz seems to be doing well versus Hanabusa, it doesn't seem to be related to the Inouye "successorship" issue.

  •  Same poll has Hanabusa up 50-42 over Schatz (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat, BachFan, Uncle Moji, mconvente

    Completely different from all other results but as David noted, Hawaii's polls are notoriously unreliable.

    We could see a clean sweep of Japanese-American candidates with Ige, Hanabusa, Mark Takai in Hawaii's 1st and Shan Tsutsui for lieutenant governor.

    Interesting how the JA bloc has kept at it even as their population dwindles. I think Filipinos are now the biggest minority group in Hawaii but they don't seem politically influential. I guess as a relative newcomers they're still finding their feet whereas the Japanese practically built the modern Hawaii Democratic party...

    GOP stands for Grand Old Problem.

    by LennyLiberal on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 05:14:28 AM PDT

    •  As the younger AJAs move up, Filipino politicians (4+ / 0-)

      will fill the void.  

      Why the continuing influence of AJAs on elected office in Hawai'i?  Because Japanese Americans vote.  Because they are the descendants of plantation workers who organized into unions, then volunteered for service in segregated units after our islands were attacked on Dec 7, came home and found themselves shut out of political & economic & social power by whites (kama'aina haoles), gained the vote through statehood in 1959, and stood up for election, as the most American duty of citizenship, and as part of that very clear legacy (which is passed down generationally) voting is not simply a civic duty, it's a duty to honor the struggle of one's forebears who got that vote.  

      "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

      by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:26:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A lot of people commented that Ige (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji, Stude Dude

    seems to be a good candidate, a good guy, the favorability numbers seem to bear that out.

    So I think we'll be okay in Nov, but it's going to be an issue with Hannemann in there. I think Ige would definitely be favored in a two way race against Aiona.

  •  I Believe Ath Abercrombie Will Win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    He has been a very liberal governor and in the end this will be the final verdict of his winning his nomination.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 06:59:03 AM PDT

  •  call me confused - what does it mean to be a (0+ / 0-)

    Democrat in Hawaii?

    We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

    by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 07:01:23 AM PDT

    •  I don't understand your question . (0+ / 0-)

      "please love deeply...openly and genuinely." A. M. H.

      by indycam on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 07:58:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mufi+Ed Case+Donna Kim (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BvueDem, Hayate Yagami, Stude Dude

        We have a pretty large tent over there, even for our party leaders.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

        by GoUBears on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 08:15:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Just try to understand who is David Ige (0+ / 0-)

        so I am not sure I can read David Y Ige's Ratings and Endorsements and then especially this one and this one. If you compare David Ige's ratings by the National Rifle Institute (64%) vs. Abercombie's (7%), what does that mean?

        We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

        by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:06:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ige gets a lifetime "C" from the NRA (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Hayate Yagami, mimi

          There are a lot of rural hunters in Hawai'i, still, those who hunt pig for food, not for sport.  Those who ride loose in the back of pick up trucks because that's all there is for transportation (see Neighbor Islands, rural Oah'u).  In other parts of the Mainland, Ige would be a screaming left wing communist anti-American probably not really American.  In Hawai'i, he's to the right of the sitting Governor.

          "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

          by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:33:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I forgot about the hunting interests of (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Uncle Moji

            many Hawaiians. I apologize. But why would Ige be a left wing communist anti-American on the mainland? Whad did he say to support that?

            We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

            by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 11:03:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's a Democrat who supports the Kenyan (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mimi, windwardguy46, Stude Dude

              Barack Obama.  It's like being from Massachusetts.  (Such as a local like me who went to Punahou and now lives in Mass.)

              Okay, kidding aside, Ige was endorsed by the Hawaii State Teachers Association, voted to increase the minimum wage, voted for same sex marriage, voted for background checks at gun registration, voted to increase tax rate on top income earners, voted for tax funds for use for sex education...you know, all the things the Tea Party brands as communist and anti-American that has traction on the mainland in a way it will never have in Hawai'i, because it's too bombastic and hyper-dramatic which does not generally sell well in more low key Hawai'i.  It's why Sarah Palin didn't do well there in her one semester in college in Hawai'i.  A half-term governor, and half-term college student, go figure.

              "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

              by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 11:14:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yes, thank you, I read his record (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Uncle Moji

                and that's why I got confused. I tried to find something where he might be different from Abercrombie. I also know about Palin's amazing success as a student of the Pacific University of HI ...

                So, what differentiates him then vis a vis Abercrombie? What is it that makes him "preferable" to Abercrombie? What is disliked among democratic voters about  Abercrombie ? Just trying to get a grasp of it. Thanks for you kind answers.

                We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

                by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 11:38:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  How he does what he does, not what he does. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TomFromNJ

                  I agree it's confusing, and seems odd to throw someone out because of style not substance, but I think, in Hawai'i, how you do something, how you say something, how you treat someone matters intensely, because non-verbal communication is an essential part of how people get along or not.  Rudeness (not suggesting Neil is purposefully rude or even rude), or abruptness, or insensitivity or lack of solicitude is considered a "Mainland" trait, not to be emulated or repeated.  It's this very local sensibility that informs Barack's behavior, he is very much a local boy in how he responds to hostile and disrespectful behavior.  There is also the corollary in how that perceived impolite or socially dissonant behavior is punished - and Neil is on the receiving end of that - quietly, in the privacy of the ballot booth. (I think this is how Lingle also got elected, a message was sent about corruption and the old ways of doing bad things.)  Social obligations, omiyage, family obligations, ohana, matter in Hawai'i.

                  Frankly, I think he's gotten a bad shake, but it's a small measure of his making, and large measure of his failure to recognize it and fix it before it became engrained in the narrative about him.  He's a good man who failed to manage his own story, which is a bizarre way to go.  

                  But political difference between him and Ige?  I think, not much.  

                  Mahalo.

                  "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

                  by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 12:49:39 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Would we be correct to summarize that Hawaii is (0+ / 0-)

                much like Massachusetts?  This is left of Texas, but still American.  

    •  Very big tent. (5+ / 0-)

      That's a question that requires an awful lot of text to give any kind of useful answer.

      Hawaii's racial political dynamics are completely different than anything on the mainland.

      Hawaii's history still resonates in ways that mainlanders wouldn't necessarily expect.

      Hawaii seems to really like the benefits of incumbency - politicians are rarely defeated, usually they die or decide to retire.

      Just reading some of the past diaries will demonstrate that there are significant local dynamics.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:18:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Different (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mimi, Stude Dude, Uncle Moji
        Hawaii's racial political dynamics are completely different than anything on the mainland.

        Hawaii's history still resonates in ways that mainlanders wouldn't necessarily expect.

        Well said. It's so hard to explain to anyone who hasn't lived there. You simply cannot transfer assumptions from the mainland. I would also argue that you can't understand Barack Obama well without knowing Hawai'i.
        •  Why? Was his upbringing so clearly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stude Dude

          influenced by Hawaiian culture? I somewhat see other influences more prevalent than some not clearly identifiable Hawaiian cultural conditions. Can you explain a little bit more what you mean?

          We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

          by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 11:00:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You said it, brah! (0+ / 0-)

          Barack Obama is often confusing to many here on this site and on the Mainland because he doesn't respond like a typical Mainland Democrat, even as he makes his home in Chicago.  But he is eminently recognizable as a local.  He has said as much, growing up local, shaped him to his core.  

          "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

          by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 01:33:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  so, how are those racial political dynamics then? (0+ / 0-)
        Hawaii's racial political dynamics are completely different than anything on the mainland.
        Aren't there also religious and libertarian political dynamics that get all mingled up with racial ones? I find Hawaii to be a very difficult to grasp mix of people with regards to their political values as Democrats.

        We know a hell of a lot, but we understand very little. Manfred Max-Neef

        by mimi on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 10:57:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Really? There's a primary and Mufi runs 3rd party (4+ / 0-)

    anyway? Check his pockets for Republican money.

    While you dream of Utopia, we're here on Earth, getting things done.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 07:35:31 AM PDT

  •  that's in hawaii. the inland looks brighter (0+ / 0-)

    i'm not sure what abercombie did to alliw a republican defeat him, but the gubernatorial races in the inland is much better. I don't think what happens in hawaii affects the 48 states.

    •  You're right..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sandys

      Many people on the mainland still consider Hawaii to be a foreign country. When I order products online or by phone, I seem to always get referred to the "Foreign Sales" operator. White people and Republicans are in the minority here....and everyone gets along because our aloha spirit allows everyone to except everyone without judgment. Mainlanders don't understand that kinship among us islanders. I've been here only 5 years but will not even consider relocating back to the mainland. Oh, ya, we have a few Republicans here and a few right wing conservatives; but no one really takes them seriously as we can recognize a buffoon pretty quickly. We just leave them alone and tend not to include them in the culture.

  •  Why would Repub voters go for Ige? (0+ / 0-)

    If Abercrombie is so unpopular, why don't Repubs vote for him in the primary?

    •  Because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      Because most people don't vote 'strategically' they just vote for the one they like better. They probably are thinking that the dem will win in November, so get rid of the guy they can't stand.

      I don't know how I'm meant to act with all of you lot. Sometimes I don't try, I just na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na

      by Zornorph on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 08:11:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  His not very popular with the Unions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      I know that my Mother who is a Union activist have stated that Abercrombie was more anti-Union and anti-labor. He really didn't care for cutting teachers wages and other benefits to Union workers. Abercrombie was highly supported by the Unions when he was running for Governor. Now he is content on not doing the things that got him into that position.

      I can't even recall him doing anything substantial for Hawaii. He raised taxes on property and business owners while pissing off the labor unions.

      Unions now support Ige. They really don't want to. But because his the lesser of two evils.

      One thing you can't do in Hawaii is piss off the unions. Hanneman learned his lesson and look where it got him. Abercrombie has done that as well. Thus his going to lose.

      •  Only the teachers' union (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sandys

        As far as I know. Abercrombie has been a super staunch supporter of unions his whole political career. However it is true that in his term as governor he has had to be more practical and less bleeding-heart than he had been at the national level.

        Unfortunately there are a lot of dumb as rocks workaday residents in Hawaii, who would even consider thinking of Abercrombie as anti-union.

      •  Abercrombe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sandys

        fostered "furlough Friday" and opposed union increases so he could get the budget and economy of the former Republican governor Lingle back on track and balance the budget. He told everyone he had to do this to keep Hawaii solvent and that is was a temporary manner. Sadly, here in the Aloha state, once you offend it is very difficult to get past the grudges that are sometimes held for many years. Ed Case lost his bid for the US Senate because he had the balls to fun against long time Senator Akaka in a primary.

  •  Brah , (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji

    it's Hawaii—so hang on to your butts okoles , because we've got a long way to go yet.

    "please love deeply...openly and genuinely." A. M. H.

    by indycam on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 07:58:07 AM PDT

  •  are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    Are Hawaiian Republicans mainland crazy?

    Actions speak louder than petitions.

    by melvynny on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 07:58:27 AM PDT

    •  Yes and no (0+ / 0-)

      Traditionally Hawaii Republicans could pass for Democrats in many places on the mainland. The last Republican governor spoke a lot of flat out progressive rhetoric. Not that she wasn't a disaster.

      Then the Tea Party happened, and the last Republican governor went psycho and got in line behind her purported friend Sarah Palin. The few radical Republicans in office locally doubled down on their radical rhetoric, and the middle ground Repubs mostly lost as the national party radicalized.

      There is a small movement of young, ostensibly centrist Republicans that formed a strange-bedfellow coalition with the Progressive Democrats to seize the House speakership away from the centrist/conservative Dems last session. It remains to be seen whether the future of the Hawaii Republican party lies with the young, agreeable Aaron Johanson model or the teabagger Bob McDermott model.

      Republicans are still completely marginalized in Hawaii politics, though some Democratic leaders actually go out of their way to give them some kind of voice on issues, even if it has little legislative impact.

    •  Duke Aiona is a Tea Party Republican. (0+ / 0-)

      I went to a Tea Party rally one time (just to see if I was being unreasonable in my revulsion of them - I wasn't) and heard him speak.  I was horrified that people here would even consider voting for him.  There weren't very many people there. I don't know how he is managing to poll as well as he seems to be.  The only thing I can think is that he doesn't talk that way unless he is specifically talking to Tea Party people, and/or that he appeals to mainland Republicans who come here and try to import their RWNJ craziness. There are quite a few people like that here.

  •  why is Hannemann running as an indi? (0+ / 0-)
    •  Became Democratic persona non-grata (0+ / 0-)

      When he gave up the mayorship to run against Neil in a failed bid. Yet another in a line of transgressions that saw a fairly strong lineup of candidates poised to hold all major offices snipe each other out and weaken the party as a whole, even leading to the election of a Republican congressman for CD1.

  •  There's a special place in hell for Dems (7+ / 0-)

    who run as independents and allow Republicans to get in as a result.

  •  Ayup. Can't win if voters "just don't like you". (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoUBears

    We learned that lesson in WA-8, twice...  ;-)

    It's pretty damn hard to run a winning campaign when people "just don't like you," no further explanation offered.
  •  Abercrombie appointment as US Senator has (5+ / 0-)

    doomed him with Asian Americans. Even those inclined to support the incumbent Senator in the primary really hate that he passed over an experience POC and a woman for a young white guy. It really brings up the idea of double standards, glass ceilings, and how rules suddenly change when a person of color is going to benefit (in this case the most qualified person to be nominated).

    I know some readers don't want to hear the ethnic undertones to this race, but Abercrombie really blew it with Asian Americans. Primary voters seem to be taken out their feeling more on Abercrombie than on Senator Brian Schatz. Senator Brian Schatz hasn't committed any Democratic sins as Senator so he isn't really hated, he only benefited from Abercrombie's actions.

    A number of Asian Americans have expressed their frustration with Schatz appointment. I really feel this is the reason, and it's why it isn't showing up in polls. People don't feel comfortable telling pollsters thsi type of thing. But right after Schatz appointment is when Abercrombie's number fell into the toilet.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)! Follow on Twitter @dopper0189

    by dopper0189 on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 08:28:39 AM PDT

    •  This isn't true that I know of (0+ / 0-)

      Hanabusa is a fairly tainted politician. Schatz was and is a rising star in the Democratic lineup. It's not so much race-based as the legacy of Dan Inouye, which leaves many conflicted between the old guard that was so powerful for so long and the new guard which is actually better on the issues, represented by Schatz and Abercrombie (both Obama guys).

    •  I don't think race factored into the appointment (0+ / 0-)

      of Schatz, but it may factor in the support for Hanabusa.  In my experience, some of the Asian people in Hawaii (especially the older ones) are quite ethnocentric in their perspective.  More so than many of the whites/haoles are.  

  •  Thanks for covering the uncoverable Hawai'i (5+ / 0-)

    elections.  

    Unfortunately, Neil hasn't a chance in hell of being re-elected.  He has managed to piss off those who should have been his Democratic base.  My late mother, who was a registered Republican always voted Democratic (and voting for Barack was what kept her alive in 2008 after she had a catastrophic medical event, "okay, I stay alive to vote for Barack"), didn't vote for Abercrombie - she didn't vote against him, she simply skipped that line because she simply didn't like him "no, not so much" but wouldn't explain why.  I suspect this kind of voting or non-voting would bode well for Duke, if Abercrombie was the nominee in the general, because it would depress the vote and allow Duke to have edged Abercrombie because of non-voting in the governor's race... that being said, it's probably a good thing for the party that Ige beats Abercrombie in the primary.  He has a good chance of beating Duke, even with Mufi still in there - since Mufi may actually splinter Duke's vote.  

    I suspect Brian will edge Colleen, because he's been in there doing the job, and Hawai'i tends to re-elect people doing a decent job as long as there is not corruption and their hearts remain in Hawai'i.  Both Brian and Colleen should win in a general, so the seat remains in Democratic hands.  

    Interestingly, both David Ige and Duke Aiona are from Pearl City, which may signal the final ascendency of West & Central Oahu (long maligned as backwards, rural, plantation, or riddled with crime and poverty) as a growing population center with horrific traffic problems and often under-served and overlooked.  The last great politician from West Oahu was Patsy Mink (Title IX), who has a major park named for her in Waipahu, in what were once fields and fields of the vanished Leeward sugar cane plantations.  We may also see beginning of the rise of Filipino politicians also from Waipahu, which was once home to a high concentration of Japanese Americans from the Oahu Sugar Co. plantations, Waipahu is now noted for its dominance of Filipinos (including those who live on the Mainland and in the Philippines who know Waipahu as "home").  

    I noticed that in Ige's kickoff, in attendance were Akaka's widow, and Ariyoshi's son.  Ige honed that note about respect for the past and dedication to Hawai'i with his campaign's highlight about his father as a member of the 100th battalion - for those who know, the 100th preceded the 442nd Regimental Combat Team as the all Hawai'i Nisei unit, many of whom were part of the Hawaiian Guard who were first called up on Dec 7th and provided aid and rescue to the victims of Pearl Harbor and then, by evening, were arrested at bayonet point as "enemy aliens", until release a few days later once a local military commander realized that a mainland commander had arrested kama'ainas, local boys.

    Aiona and Mufi also have appeal to many conservative Christians (Hawaii is a very Catholic state with a strong evangelical presence), and I suspect may compete for those voters.  

    I do agree with someone upthread who suggested that older AJAs will come out for Ige.  Those are the unpollable voters, and I suspect Ige may be seen as a generational heir to Inouye, and those men of that past.  Abercrombie angered those who felt Hanabusa should have been appointed instead of Brian, per Inouye's wishes, and I think, he is paying that price.   Curiously, I don't think that has coattails for Hanabusa (even though she is from Waianae and Japanese American, and was Inouye's choice) and may work against her.  Hawai'i voters often seek "balance" - which is why Hiram Fong and Danny Inouye were considered ideal Senators - one Republican, one Democrat.  And Schantz provides "balance", as a young, white, man originally born on the mainland but who went to Punahou and lived in town, and has repeatedly proven his Hawai'i roots and shown that his heart is firmly planted in the islands.  

    "Balance" as a factor for voters, is often, I think, underappreciated by outsiders as an influence in the polling booth for Hawai'i voters.

    Mahalo.

    "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:04:58 AM PDT

  •  Bill Hicks - Rant In E Minor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    schumann, Stude Dude
    I'll show you politics in America. Here it is, right here. "I think the puppet on the right shares my beliefs." "I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking." "Hey, wait a minute, there's one guy holding out both puppets!" "Shut up! Go back to bed, America. Your government is in control. Here's Love Connection. Watch this and get fat and stupid. By the way, keep drinking beer, you fucking morons."

    In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy

    by boriscleto on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:30:38 AM PDT

  •  I live in Hawaii. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, TomFromNJ, apimomfan2

    It seems that a lot of people are displeased with Abercrombie not appointing Hanabusa to be U. S. senator when Inouye died. There is sort of a feeling here that Inouye had the right to choose his successor. Never mind that that's not in the constitution and stuff. Never mind that it is actually the governor who gets to make the choice. Never mind the facts. They only get in the way of people's opinions.
    Abercrombie has been a good liberal governor. He got us marriage equality.
    I have seen a poll showing support for Abercrombie and Ige across racial lines. It seems the majority of whites favor Abercrombie and the majority of JAs favor Ige.
    Schatz has been a very active progressive Senator, especially on the environment. He grew up in Hawaii.
    Duke Aiona is very conservative in religious matters, and I believe the first thing he would do, if elected as gov, would be to try to overturn marriage equality. He is already speaking at a lot of churches. We don't need another Republican governor. Lingle was awful.

    "For we, the people, understand that our country cannot succeed when a shrinking few do very well and a growing many barely make it." - President Barack Obama, Second Inaugural Address, January 21, 2013.

    by surfermom on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 09:57:32 AM PDT

    •  It's not so much that Neil didn't choose Colleen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MacGumaraid

      it was how he did it, and that he appointed Brian (someone from his own "ohana") instead of someone else who had paid more dues or was a place holder until the people could vote.

      Frankly, if Neil loses to Ige, this bodes well for Brian, since Hawai'i voters won't punish Brian twice for what Neil did or how Neil did it.  If Neil hangs on, I think Brian might be in for a difficult general.  

      As a purely political calculation, it's better for the state and progressives if Neil loses, since Brian is young, a good solid progressive, and has a bright future ahead.  Much as I have been a long time fan of Neil's and will be sorry to see him lose.  You are right, Neil has been a great progressive.  

      "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

      by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 01:41:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The polling numbers are giving warning signs since (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji

    months.

    This is a race to watch closely for some reasons.

    If Abercrombie wins the primary, it will be necessary to support him to improve his weak numbers.

    If Ige wins the primary, he will have a huge financial gap that should be reversed in very little time.

    It is not a situation to be confortable. The supporters of both politicians have reasons to worry looking at the general election.

    Also, at this point I have doubt that Hannaman is playing as a spoiler, or if he is helping to keep Aiona under the 50% level. It is something to analize. In the first poll of the cycle, in January, Aiona was at 48% vs Abercrombie and at 51% vs Ige.

    Still I'm not pessimistic about this race. I think a victory is possible with some work.

  •  It's shaping up to be a very ugly November for ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, apimomfan2

    It's shaping up to be a very ugly November for the dems. Each passing day the polling is starting to settle into consistent GOP leads in house and senate races and now in what was supposed to be the dems strength, governor races. HI, IL, and FL should all be lay ups but are all now leaning towards GOP wins. Honestly we've been hearing for years that demographics and GOP craziness should help the democrats but it's like they've forgotten how to win elections. It would be nice to see a democrat somewhere actually OVER achieving the expectations and polling.

  •  About the "Duke" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji, abgin, apimomfan2
    Ward finds Republican Duke Aiona, who badly lost to Abercrombie four years ago, leading Ige 41-34 and Abercrombie 45-30...
    Former Lieutenant Governor "Duke" Aiona is in real tight with the Apostolic Reformation (The charismatic branch of Dominionism):

    He was "anointed" by "Apostle" Ed Silvoso:

    He is so involved with Dominionism that he went to "Transformation Uganda" to pray with "Mama" Janet (also considered an "Apostle"), who is Prime Minister's Yoweri Museveni's wife (21 second mark):

    These are the people who engineered the Kill the Gays bill.

    A million Arcosantis.

    by Villabolo on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 12:58:01 PM PDT

    •  If this is clearly known, it will be a knife's (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Villabolo, abgin, apimomfan2

      edge for Duke.  He is a Catholic, who went to St Louis, and is seen as a decent family man.  But intolerance, the joyful embrace of intolerance, does not play well in Hawai'i.  The question is, will this stick?

      "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

      by Uncle Moji on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 01:35:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The supreme irony of his being a Catholic is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Uncle Moji

        ...that the Apostolic Reformation (Dominionists) demonize the Catholic Church to the point where their objects of worship, saints, rosary beads, etc., are burned in 55 gallon drums.

        In Argentina, where Aiona and his mentor Ed Silvoso attended a revival meeting, that is exactly what happened as former Catholics where told to destroy these "demonized" objects of worship. The "Duke" must have missed that event.

        A million Arcosantis.

        by Villabolo on Mon Aug 04, 2014 at 01:59:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, the Catholic Church, particularly under Pope (0+ / 0-)

          Francis does not look the other way (as it did under Benedict and John Paul 2) at these faith conflicts in order to further a right wing political agenda.  

          Hawai'i is a very Catholic state, but the kind of Catholicism that is practiced there is primarily American Catholicism, that is, a practice of faith more consistent with Francis than Benedict.  And Duke's praying with Dominionists who burn Catholic rosaries in burn barrels and demonize the Virgin Mother is not a good sell for a St Louis boy.  Photographs of the two together, juxtaposed with the burning of Catholic religious artifacts would be virtually insurmountable for Duke.  He'd have a lot of 'splaining to do, and it would simply lead to more questions that are unanswerable for him.

          "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

          by Uncle Moji on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:15:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Not voting Abercrombie (0+ / 0-)

    I am a teacher in Hawaii. He totally screwed us over after saying he wouldn't. The man does not keep his promises.

    •  Thanks for the local perspective (0+ / 0-)

      I find it always helps when discussing state races.

      Welcome to Daily Kos. If you have any questions about how to participate here, you can learn more at the Community Guidelines, the Knowledge Base, and the Site Resource Diaries. Diaries labeled "Open Thread" are also great places to ask. We look forward to your contributions.
      ~~ from the DK Partners & Mentors Team.

      Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

      by a gilas girl on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 01:54:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Teachers think they are special (0+ / 0-)

      Every other union in the state plays the game but teachers always think they should have different rules. You think the state's financial condition may have had any bearing on what Abercrombie had to do? He has been a solid union guy all his career, you think he wanted to have to get the house in order after Lingle screwed it up?

      What were you willing to do to help?

  •  Hawaii strikes again, as usual (0+ / 0-)

    I lived in Hawaii FAR, FAR too long (over 35 years). My drunk-with-the-Hawaii-Kool-Aid then-spouse unexpectedly died, releasing me to leave for far better pastures.

    Hawaii is the most self-satisfied, pigheadedly ignorant & incompetent and racist train-wreck of a place I've ever seen (including the deep South). And worse, its racism is dishonest -- with no one majority clearly in the majority, all kinds of really ugly stuff simmers, and rarely gets handled.  Lovely 'melting-pot' indeed.  What a Tourism Agency PR crock that is.

    Then too, it's a state founded on Dual-Kleptocracy: The original Hawaiian rulers were brutal stone-age oligarchs (who stole everything from 'their' people), then were supplanted by the so-called 'missionaries' who (with their imported diseases and better weapons) stole it all from THEM. Hawaii is the PROTOTYPE for a 1% versus 99% society. All covered over with fluffy myths about 'Aloha.'

    As an Island state, it is steeped not only in overt, utterly shameless Thievery As Usual (every politician uses Office to Get Theirs), but also in scarcity (not enough left over from all the theft to go around).

    Neil Abercrombie has been a stunning exception to all that, so it is NOT a big surprise that the so-called 'culture' of Hawaii Nei is finally rising up in all its drooling awfulness to get rid of HIM.

    Alo-HA, lunatic-asylum land!  Good luck, Neil!  Awesome that you tried.

  •  I think the answer is simpler than it seems (0+ / 0-)

    Abercrombie's campaign has sucked. Whoever ran it blew it, especially now with the hurricanes coming.

    The campaign has so much more money yet Ige has had the far larger presence in media. What has Abercrombie's campaign been spending on? Has it been spending?

    There are some indications it plans to spend a lot this week leading up to election day. But that's a mistake -- the narrative has already been set up and worse, absentee voters are already voting.

    Now with the hurricanes possibly keeping many away from the polls ... oh wow.

    There also seems to be a general lack of appreciation among Abercrombie's camp that his image needs smoothing. Not sure why that is, but it's pretty obvious. His PR team has been terrible his entire term, including now in the campaign. He is a passionate, high-octane speaker who has a tendency to not stick to safe statements. He doesn't give a crap about plausible deniability. So he really needs some people helping translate his vision and conveying what he is doing to those who don't really get it and find him abrasive.

  •  There is a chance (0+ / 0-)

    that Saturday's primary election might be delayed. It all depends on the strength of the hurricane that is expected to hit us here on the Big Island on Thursday evening. the bulk will be with un on Friday and may be past but Big Island, but will be raging in Oahu (Honolulu) on election day.

  •  Schatz appointment was an absolute insult (0+ / 0-)

    and the voters of Hawaii are going to make him pay by ending his career.

    It insulted the political establishment of Hawaii in 1000 ways, but it takes knowing a little bit about the state to understand just how his selection of Schatz to finish Inyoui's term was going to be taken as a demeaning slap in the face to Hawaiian voters who will make the decision in this election.

    I read somewhere that Schatz has a tin ear, well that would be the most benign explanation for his choice considering the history of Hawaii.

    Superficially it does look like it could be racially related when you look at a few key statistics, but it's not really though.

    It has to do with respect, and in appointing Schatz Ambercrombie insulted the largest community on the Island NOT because Schatz was White, but BECAUSE blithely ignored the dying wishes of Inyoui who asked him to appoint a specific lady to fill his seat until the next election.

    The fact that Schatz was VERY YOUNG (he is still the youngest senator) and based on age alone undeserving of such a lofty placement just magnified the insult inherent in ignoring Inyoui's dying request. he chose him for the nebulous reason that he was comfortable with him.

    Schatz by virtue of being so young simply did not have the long political record that justified appointing him to the HIGHEST national office available to Hawaii.

    He didn't have the qualifications to match the lady Inyuoi had asked Ambercrombie to appoint to his seat when he died.

    In appointing Schatz, Ambercrombie showed a total lack of comprehension of the values many Hawaiian voters hold dear thanks to their Asian heritage. To ignore Inyoui's wishes for such a fascil reason was unforgivable in and of itself.

    And talk about DISrespect.

    Even if he did not mean it, to many it sounded like you Asians need a White person to represent you, because why - uh no reason. He was just the guy Ambercrombie said he felt most comfortable with, because he knew him so well as Lt. Governor.

    OK, so it's CONNECTIONS.

    Ambercrombie despite a good progressive record and not being racist in the least, made a tribal choice.

    Ambercrombie chose someone like him, because he was like him.

    He gave him a massive advantage in a state in which when all things are equal, a man like Schatz would have to be in politics a long time before he'd have a shot at being elected Senator from the state.

    To add to the strangeness of the choice, Schatz is Jewish.

    Ambercrombie may have thought it would be a big plus to have a Jewish Senator, because there are regularly up to 20 Jewish senators serving. A Jewish senator from Hawaii would maybe give him 20 votes instantly for anything Schatz might want for Hawaii the logic would go.

    That would make sense for any state in the Union EXCEPT Hawaii.

    To make that appointment Ambercrombie completely ignored the DECIDING DEMOCRATIC constituency in Hawaii made up mostly of Asian voters.

    He ignored the wishes of that community and in doing so turned from a progressive governor into a patronizing liberal who thinks he knows what's best for Hawaii better than Hawaiians do.

    So to ensure his better judgment wins the day he'll appoint someone Hawaiians would NOT have elected to fill a seat in order to give him a competitive advantage in hopes of frustrating the will of the majority of Hawaiian voters who don't elect enough White people to the national government.

    A few more stats about Hawaii many don't know that might make this more understandable.

    Whites regardless of religion only make up 25% of the Island's population.

    People who describe themselves as Asian ethnically make up 38% of the island's population.

    Hawaii's Senators both were Asian up to 2010 for decades, thanks to the large plurality and strong united support given by the Asian community.

    In 2012 Akaka retired, and Hawaiians elected another Asian, this time a woman by a MASSIVE 2/3rds majority landslide.

    That result should give pause to anyone who thinks Hawaiians were A OK with Schatz appointment in 2012 to fill Inyoui's seat until a 2014 special election.

    Inyoui  was the HIGHEST ranking American of Asian decent in the history of the nation as well as the longest serving senator ever.

    Just that little bit of background should make it clear just how mind blowing it was for Ambercrombie to choose Schatz.

    Finally Hawaiians have NO PROBLEM electing White people to higher office, and are also fine with Jewish people as the governor before Ambercrombie was a White Jewish Female Republican who served two terms.

    So the animus is not against White people.

    The anger and resentment stem from Ambercrombie In effect repeating a pattern of behavior repeated since Hawaii was  annexed to the USA by White farmers who criminally ignored the recognized government of the Islands back then.

    For many Ambercrombie's choice fit perfectly into the history of the state where Asian and non-White residents were completely ignored so that the White elite from the mainland could utilize the resources of the Islands for their own benefit.

    Ambercrombie may not have a racist bone in his body, but that doesn't excuse the fact that he could NOT, did NOT or refused to see how his selection was a throwback to the days when Hawaii was only a territory and White leaders who truly were racists made decisions to benefit only themselves to the exclusion of the residents of the Islands.

    There are precious few places in this nation where all people regardless of color have an equal chance to gain higher office and influence the course of national politics.

    Hawaii is one of those few places, and as a state the ONLY ONE that can give a voice to people who are SHUT OUT of the Senate.

    When you take that into consideration, Ambercrombie's choice is just another example of Hawaiians being forced to give up something they had worked hard to obtain and had the power to hold on to all so that a White man who would be far too young for such a high office a huge advantage over them.

    •  Sorry but totally wrong (0+ / 0-)

      Not sure why you think you know anything, but clearly you don't. "Inouyi"? WTF?

      Schatz was chosen as Inouye's successor because he was always going to "be somebody" in the party. He was Obama's guy in Hawaii. He was a golden boy, a future star. His time just got moved up because of Inouye's death.

      Abercrombie understood that whoever got appointed to the seat would likely hold the seat permanently, and the whole point was to elect someone who, like Inouye, was very young and could accumulate huge seniority over time.

      Neither Hanabusa nor Hirono can do that. Not to mention, Hanabusa is a centrist dem, a representative of the old establishment. Inouye was no progressive. Schatz is a progressive champion.

    •  I agree with unred on this one (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think your long post about the reasons for Abercrombie's poll numbers is accurate.  I don't know why he's polling so poorly.  Everyone I have talked to thinks he's done a pretty good job.  I imagine there are some who are upset with him for appointing Schatz, but I attribute that more to the ethnocentricity of many older Asians, and it may or may not be enough to get Hanabusa elected.  I think Abercrombie's unpopularity has more to do with some of the things he has had to do to clean up the mess Linda Lingle left him than his appointment of Schatz.  

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