A COUPLE OF DATA POINTS TO CELEBRATE
- This morning the Dept of Labor told us that unemployment claims dropped a whopping 32K to a mere 300,000 lucky souls. This is the lowest number in 7 years. It is a meaningful statistic that often forecasts robust job growth, the kind of growth economists have been predicting for this Q2 of 2014. It made me smile, especially because that means more/better jobs for real people and it doesn't hurt that I am long on the S & P.
- Then this afternoon, as a bouquet to deficit hawks and Keynsian cheerleaders alike we hear this:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. budget deficit narrowed sharply in March, the Treasury Department reported Thursday, as tax receipts climbed and government spending fell broadly.Oh My Freakin' Gawd! The deficit drops 65% year/year... that's great! It's because of a huge increase in taxes plus some belt tightening... GREAT!
The government’s shortfall was $37 billion, down 65% compared to the March 2013 deficit of $107 billion.
In March, the government’s receipts of individual and corporate taxes were both higher. Total receipts were up 16% compared to March 2013. Spending, meanwhile, fell 14% in the month. Outlays were lower in most budget categories, including defense, education and agriculture.
Now on Planet Sane this would be swell news to THEM,
*And the answer would be "right".
However on the planet of THEM (capital: Meadow Lane, Southhampton NY. Population: Dozens darling) this news doesn't mean squat. As of this moment (now 2:39PM) the Dow index is down by a huge 1.29%, the S & P is down a staggering 1.67% and the Nasdaq is in catastrophic territory, 2.73%. This isn't jump ledge stuff and it will all rebound in a matter or hours, days or weeks. A mote in God's eye.
Why is it down? Chew on this friendo:
(Chinese) Exports fell 6.6% from a year earlier, slower than the more-than-18% tumble in the previous month, but widely missing a Dow Jones-survey consensus for a 4.2% gain.Reasons are many but primarily it has to do with the strong Yuan and self-defeating trade policies in Beijing (read: we want our TPP). Just an example, today it was stated that Chinese solar cells will be 20% more expensive. Walmart isn't getting the margins they used to on truckloads of crap. It isn't worth the fuel oil to ship American's For Prosperity commemorative baseballshalf way around the world.
Well that explains it. THEM might be faced with paying American's to make, sell and fix stuff. Our economy may be heating up but Chinese exports are way down. THEM has a sad :(
If you didn't lose your job today, or perhaps got a better job making, selling or servicing American goods or people DON'T CELEBRATE! There's a THEM out there who is afraid they might lose a geo-economic point tonight. Literally dozens of people in the USA are disappointed in todays news and for that we should all be profoundly sorry.